O’ahu Real Estate Market Report – August 2025
The O’ahu housing market continues to be shaped by two powerful currents: supply restraint and selective demand.
About 60 to 70 percent of homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 4 percent, and selling would mean replacing their affordable payments with loans at nearly double the cost. That “lock-in effect” is keeping listings limited, which in turn has stabilized prices despite affordability challenges.
Over the past six weeks, mortgage rates have edged down slightly, and that modest relief has already enticed some buyers back into the water. But it is important to note that August’s closed sales numbers mostly reflect offers written in June and July, before the recent rate movement. To gauge today’s momentum, pendings and inventory in escrow offer a clearer lens.
Closed sales in August showed modest shifts. Single-family home transactions rose 2.4 percent year over year to 259, while condo sales slipped 2.5 percent to 391. Prices held firm, with the median single-family price easing 1.5 percent to $1,105,500, while condos gained 3.0 percent to $515,000. But the real signal is in the forward contracts. Pending single-family sales surged 28.5 percent to 302, the highest level so far this year, while pending condo sales held steady at 406. These pending deals reflect activity in the past month and suggest that lower rates and tight supply are motivating buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines. For condos, it was more subdued because owners are still feeling the echo of the maintenance fee jumps over the past 2 years.
Inventory trends underscore the boutique-like nature of O’ahu’s market. Active single-family listings stood at 790, up just 3.9 percent from last year but down 7.3 percent from July, while condo inventory climbed 28.4 percent year over year to 2,412, though also easing month to month. Sellers are trickling new supply into the market, with 318 single-family new listings, down 8.1 percent from a year ago, and 643 condo listings, up 2.2 percent.
Meanwhile, total inventory in escrow jumped 30.5 percent for single-family homes and 8.6 percent for condos, another indicator of buyer re-engagement. Properties are also taking longer to move, with median days on market stretching to 22 for single-family homes and 48 for condos, giving buyers a bit more breathing room but still rewarding sellers who align with current pricing.
For buyers and sellers, the takeaway is straightforward. Buyers who were previously frozen by rates are beginning to thaw, and pendings show their presence in the market now, not just in historical closings. Sellers must remember that the tide is steady but not rushing.
Overpriced properties are left stranded, while well-positioned listings are catching offers. Limited supply from rate-locked homeowners is keeping the floor under values, and the recent dip in rates is generating a ripple of renewed activity. In short, the Oahu market is neither receding nor flooding; it is moving like a tide. Thus, selective, steady, and rewarding those who read the currents.
